Grading Cardoso

Although José Serra is acknowledged to have done
a good job as health minister he is not well known and,
as a balding, middle-aged man, cannot compare
with the glamorous Roseana Sarney.

John Fitzpatrick

Politics in Brazil this year will be dominated by October's presidential election when voters will give their verdict on Fernando Henrique Cardoso's terms of office. The chances are they will vote for continuity rather than radical change.

The stage is being set for a choice between a continuation of the market-friendly social democratic policies of the Cardoso era, which have opened the economy and reduced state intervention, and a more radical approach which would strengthen the role of the state and be less welcoming to foreign investors or institutions like the International Monetary Fund.

President Fernando Henrique Cardoso is constitutionally unable to run again and neither his PSDB party (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira—Brazilian Social Democracy Party) nor the other two main parties in the governing coalition, the PMDB (Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro—Brazilian Democratic Movement Party) and the PFL (Partido da Frente Liberal—Party of the Liberal Front), is strong enough to field a candidate on its own. This means that the governing parties will have to reach some kind of agreement on who will be the presidential and vice presidential candidates. The next few months will see much maneuvering as the parties jostle for influence and power.

Currently the PFL is in a strong position as its potential candidate, Roseana Sarney, is soaring high in the opinion polls, well ahead of the presumed PSDB candidate, health minister José Serra. Until recently it was assumed that Serra would be the government candidate but Sarney's sudden meteoric rise has cast doubts on this.

While Sarney has been receiving ratings of 20 percent to 30 percent in opinion polls Serra has been languishing in the 5 percent range. Although he is acknowledged to have done a good job as health minister Serra is not well known and, as a balding, middle-aged man, cannot compare with the glamorous Roseana Sarney. She is governor of the state of Maranhão and has a high name recognition. (Her father Senator José Sarney is a former President.)

While the PFL has been pushing Roseana Sarney, the PSDB is split over who its candidate should be. Serra's main rival is Tasso Jereissati, the governor of Ceará, who recently said he would not be a candidate. However, Jereissati is believed to be hankering for the presidency and would be ready to step in should Serra falter.

Another possible PSDB candidate is the leader of the House of Representatives, Aécio Neves, who has done a good job in just one year and overseen the passing of several groundbreaking laws. Neves also comes from a prominent political family and his grandfather, Tancredo Neves, was the first civilian president after military rule. He died before taking office and it was his vice president, none other than José Sarney, who took over. Aécio Neves is probably a bit young to be a candidate this time round but he is a standby.

Despite all this, the undisputed leader in the opinion polls is the left-wing Workers Party's veteran leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula faces no credible opposition and will probably be the PT's candidate. At the moment he has rating of around 30 percent and has been on top for months. He has national recognition, a well-organized party across the country and, most importantly, a political agenda.

Whereas the other parties are part of the government and cannot distance themselves too much from Cardoso, Lula has carte blanche. He is beholden to no-one and his message is simple—the government should act to end the disgraceful social divide between the rich and poor, the educated and uneducated.

The problem is that voters have heard all this before and on three previous occasions have voted against Lula. This will be his fourth time as a presidential candidate and he shows few signs of having learned from his previous defeats.

He still clings to the outdated socialist methods and ideas which have failed. He makes regular trips to Cuba and attacks the IMF and globalization. He recently appeared to condone the looting in Argentina by saying the looters were just copying the IMF which had been looting the country for 10 years.

Lula's party is also not particularly democratic. The only prominent PT politician to challenge Lula as a possible candidate, Senator Eduardo Suplicy, has been thwarted in his efforts to have primary elections to choose the candidate.

Lula's chances will improve if the Brazilian economy suffers setbacks in the coming year and he can persuade voters that his policies will be better. However, Brazilians are not natural radicals and the Cardoso years have definitely improved the lot of most people. The main success was the Real Plan which ended years of hyperinflation and brought in price stability.

The collapse of Argentina, where in two weeks we have seen two presidents resign, could also benefit the government candidate. The political and economic chaos Brazilians have witnessed in their southern neighbor must make them feel relieved that, for once, they are out of the action. This was not always the case and it is only in recent months that Brazil has managed to uncouple itself from Argentina in the eyes of foreign investors.

Argentina could still pose a threat but the Brazilian economy has sound fundamentals and is in a strong position to resist further pressure. A steady hand on the wheel by the new captain rather than a radical change of course is probably what most Brazilians want and, barring exceptional circumstances, the government candidate will be assuming office in a year's time.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at Johnfitz@osite.com.br

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