Clever Little Boy

Brazil's main political parties got a shock recently when
Rio de Janeiro state governor Anthony Garotinho jumped
to third place in a presidential opinion poll, well
ahead of the possible government candidate José Serra.

John Fitzpatrick

A surprise potential presidential candidate has suddenly appeared on the Brazilian political scene in the shape of Anthony Garotinho, the governor of Rio de Janeiro state. He joins another state governor, Roseana Sarney, as a serious contender in the October election. In a poll published in the magazine Veja, Garotinho had 15 percent while Roseana Sarney had 18 percent. The long-time front runner, Lula of the left-wing PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores—Workers' Party), had 28 percent while the possible government candidate, Health Minister José Serra, had a mere 7 percent.

An interesting aspect of the poll was that if the final round were between Garotinho and Lula, the Rio governor would have 39 percent of the vote compared with 43 percent for the PT leader. (There was even better news for Roseana Sarney who would beat Lula by 46 percent to 39 percent.) This is pretty impressive for someone who was on the sidelines until recently along with another potential candidate Ciro Gomes of the PPS who has lost a lot of force.

Garotinho's rise is being attributed to heavy television campaigning, his communication skills and his ambition. As he is in charge of one of Brazil's largest states he has national as well as local coverage. He travels constantly and is a self publicist. He is also an evangelist. Although Brazil is overwhelmingly Roman Catholic there are an estimated 20 million evangelists. The evangelical churches are well organized and, in some cases, rich and politically influential with their own political party, the PL (Partido Liberal—Liberal Party), which has a number of members in the House of Representatives.

Garotinho could, therefore, expect much support from this sector of the electorate although all the other main parties will try and win evangelical support, even the PT. Garotinho, like Roseana Sarney, is young and refreshingly different from Lula and Serra, both middle aged and physically unattractive. He is 41 years old and his name actually means "little boy". He has nine children, some of whom are adopted.

Unlike Roseana Sarney, who is a member of the PFL (Partido da Frente Liberal—Liberal Front Party), which forms part of the governing coalition, Garotinho comes from the opposition and this gives him more freedom to criticize the government of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. He is a member of the PSB, a party which has been described as authoritarian conservative and supported by businessmen and landowners. Garotinho has been accused of being a populist and an opportunist but his administration enjoys high popularity among the inhabitants of Rio de Janeiro state.

He identifies himself with social programs through a cheap lunch project for poorer people and a tougher approach to crime. Despite Garotinho's breakthrough in the polls there is still little chance of him donning the presidential sash this time round. The odds are too heavily against him. Not only does his party not have enough support but many opposition leaders, like the PDT's Leonel Brizola, are hostile to him and would not back him.

Voters with longer memories will also be skeptical of a young outsider with populist leanings. They will remember how they were hoodwinked by Fernando Collor who rose from small beginning to become the youngest president in Brazil's history in 1990 only to resign two years later under the threat of impeachment.

The chances are that the this year's election will still be a two-horse race between a government candidate, supported by the PSDB, PFL and PMDB, and a PT candidate. However, four years from now the "little boy" may be in a stronger position.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at Johnfitz@osite.com.br  

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