José Serra virtually destroyed Ciro Gomes on television. If
he unleashes this force against Lula he could inflict a blow.

John Fitzpatrick

Everyone professes blind faith in democracy these days, but the PT’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva must be wishing for a different form of democracy in Brazil. Look at his position after Sunday’s vote. With around 46.4 percent of the turnout he was first past the post by a wide stretch, receiving double that of his main rival, José Serra of the PSDB, who had 23.2 percent. The PSB candidate Anthony Garotinho was in third place with 17.8 percent and the PPS’s Ciro Gomes came last with 11.9 percent.

Lula won in every region, lost only in three states and in the south won 49.4 percent of the vote. However, instead of being a triumph, the result was actually a setback for Lula and a triumph for Serra. As the former British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, remarked after being forced out of the leadership of the Conservative Party which she had once led unchallenged, in a phrase, which was banal and incisive at the same time, “It’s funny old world.”

Lula now has to gather his forces and ensure that the Garotinho and Gomes’ supporters back him in the next round. In theory, Lula should have no problem. Garotinho and Gomes were hostile to the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso and tried to identify Serra with the current administration. Garotinho’s party is, in theory, socialist and he portrays himself as a defender of the poor and dispossessed. Gomes stood on the platform of a left-wing alliance, which called itself the Workers Front.

However, Lula cannot depend on these voters necessarily turning to him. On the day after the first round, the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper quoted the general director of the Datafolha organization (the polling arm of the publication) as saying that 50 percent of Garotinho supporters would support Serra and 36 percent Lula, while 46 percent of Gomes’ supporters would choose Lula and 39 percent Lula. The other main polling organization, Ibope, said that Serra would gain around 50 percent of the Garotinho and Gomes supporters, with around 33 percent opting for Lula.

Serra, meanwhile, will also be trying to lure these voters. This decisive minority stands to gain more from Serra, who needs their support more than Lula does, and will demand a high price. Serra will also woo the PFL, which is divided. It is the most free market of the parties, which supported Cardoso, but left his government at the beginning of the year in protest at what it claimed was dirty tricks campaign by Serra supporters to smear its then presidential hopeful, Roseana Sarney.

At one point Sarney was a strong contender with high ratings in polls, but a scandal over a company she owned led to an ongoing police investigation and her standing down. Serra will also try and get the active backing of Aécio Neves (PSDB) who won the governorship of Minas Gerais in the first round and Alckmin (PSDB), who came first in the first round in the São Paulo state governorship race.

Serra is also expected to play the Cardoso card with the president playing a more high profile role than he has so far. Whether this will make a big difference is unclear. As we have said many times, Cardoso is not a charismatic figure and has none of the passion of a Garotinho who could really sway uncertain voters.

The decision to “upgrade” Cardoso is typical of the arrogant, careless way the Serra campaign has assumed that it can treat electors like dupes who will gullibly accept anything put in front of them. Serra has something of the crown prince quality about him, assuming that he deserved to be president simply because of his proximity to Cardoso and same history of resistance to the military dictatorship which led to them both going into exile.

This arrogance goes back to the days when Serra was plotting his rise to the top position. First of all, he took it for granted that he would be the candidate and by doing so annoyed his main rival, Tasso Jereissati, the governor of Ceará state, so much that he ended up supporting his fellow Northeasterner, Ciro Gomes.

This was an extraordinary reaction by a leading PSDB member who put local interests above those of the party and the nation. The Serra campaign also assumed that with the free television and radio air time starting in August their candidate would boost his flagging ratings. This did happen, but nowhere near as much as they thought.

At the same time, Serra will try and use the television to show Lula as inexperienced an unworthy of the electorate’s trust. There are plans for one more televised debate and Lula will have to be on guard. In the second of the televised debates held recently, Lula was caught off his guard by Garotinho on a question related to a petroleum tax known as the CIDE. Lula thought the CIDE was a government body.

He also made a gaffe over special quotas for black people, saying there were scientific ways of establishing who is black, in a way which would have caused an outcry in the United States. It is doubtful that these remarks made a big difference to the result, but they showed that Lula’s image had slipped and may have swayed some voters.

Serra also virtually destroyed Gomes on television and by a follow-up campaign in which he called him a liar and if he unleashes this force against Lula he could inflict a blow.

The weeks up to October 27 will be marked by secret deals and horse trading. Lula is still the horse to bet on but a gambling man, prepared to take a risk, could cash in on the outsider streaking ahead.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações - www.celt.com.br, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

© John Fitzpatrick 2002

You can also read John Fitzpatrick's articles in Infobrazil,  at www.infobrazil.com  

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