Serra's Respite

Ciro Gomes' declining popularity shows that Serra's attacks
on his character have hit home. Serra has accused Gomes
of lying about his political record and personal life.

John Fitzpatrick

The government-backed candidate in Brazil's presidential election, former Health Minister José Serra (PSDB), must have produced a huge sigh of relief at the end of August when an opinion poll showed the tide may finally have turned in his bid for the presidency. The survey by IBOPE showed that Serra's rating jumped from 11 to 17 percent and, even better, those of his rival, Ciro Gomes (PPS), had fallen from 26 to 21 percent.

The main opposition candidate now in his fourth attempt to win the presidency, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), is still far ahead and maintained his rating of 35 percent. The fourth candidate, former Rio de Janeiro Governor Anthony Garotinho (PSB) gained one percentage point and rose to 11 percent. Two other polls, by Vox Populi and Sensus, showed broadly similar figures: Lula (34 and 34 percent), Gomes (25 and 25.5 percent, Serra (15 and 14.7 percent) and Garotinho (8 and 10.4 percent) respectively.

The IBOPE results mean that in just over a week, Gomes lost a 15 lead over Serra, and both are now technically even. It is far too early to say that Gomes' star has waned but this is the first real breakthrough for the Serra camp since the campaign became entered its decisive stages, with daily free television airtime being used. Instead of coasting along as the front runner with Lula, Serra has been reeling since Gomes unexpectedly arose in the voters' consciousness and pushed him aside. Serra himself was obviously pleased with the result, but described it as only the "first goal" in the game.

Gomes made no immediate comment, but went on the defensive during his allotted TV airtime on the day the poll was published, accusing Serra of making false attacks on him. This time it was the Gomes camp that started reeling, and it is expected to counterattack by blaming Serra for all the problems of the Cardoso era, including high unemployment and financial crises. We can also expect mudslinging and personal attacks.

Gomes' declining popularity shows that Serra's attacks on his character have hit home. Serra has basically accused Gomes of being a liar in terms of his political record and personal life. He has attacked Gomes over his handling of the economy when he was briefly Finance Minister in 1994, and was still a member of the PSDB. Serra has also accused Gomes of lying about being educated in public schools, when in fact part of his school days were spent at private schools. Serra's television strategy also embarrassed Gomes by showing a video in which he suggested that a radio listener in a phone-in program was a "moron", over a remark the listener made about Switzerland. To make matters worse, it was Gomes who appeared the moron as it was he who eventually made a factual error about the Swiss system of government.

But Gomes produced an even more amazing gaffe this week, when asked by a journalist whether his girlfriend, well-known actress Patricia Pillar, played an important role at his side during the campaign. Gomes replied: "My companion has one of the most important roles, which is to sleep with me. I would say that is a fundamental role."

Observers believe the Serra camp has made good use of the first few days of free television airtime, to bring Gomes back within reach. This is probably true, but Gomes himself must shoulder some of the blame. When his rating first surged, he was not well known among the general public and appeared young, fresh and new. However, over the last month his face has become familiar, and it looks as though familiarity is beginning to lead to contempt.

We have expressed our concerns about Gomes' failings several times and will not repeat them here, but in our view, he is dangerous, and along with the populist Garotinho, the worst candidate. It looks as though the public is beginning to see the hollow reality behind the image. The public has a short memory, and just as it took him to its breast in an instant, so it may discard him with equal speed. One should remember Maranhão state Governor Roseana Sarney, the public's darling less than a year ago according to opinion polls, who is now out of the running…

It's also hard to resist comparing Gomes with Brazilian national football team Manager, Luiz Felipe Scolari, who became an overnight hero when the team won the World Cup earlier this year in Korea and Japan. Two months after the big win, Scolari's popularity is already fading, partly because he announced his resignation from the squad, which promptly lost its first game following the World Cup triumph—and last match under Scolari's leadership—at home to Paraguay.

Scolari had previously praised Gomes and announced his intention of voting for him. It was no coincidence that the match was held in Fortaleza, where Gomes was once mayor. In a nauseating attempt to link Gomes with the world champions, the candidate was pictured holding a Brazilian shirt bearing number 23, a reference to his electoral code number. One hates to see Brazil lose a game but, in this case, it was good to see Gomes, at least, humiliated. Did voters, however, see any symbolism in his being associated with a losing team?

The news of Serra's improved ratings is good for the PT because it gives Lula time to sit back, bask in his newfound respectability, and watch Serra and Gomes fight it out. As for Lula himself, he is weaving the most tangled of tangled webs to become president. We have already pointed out the strange alliance he represents, which includes the Brazilian Communist Party and the evangelically-oriented PL (Liberal Party), along with other strange bedfellows most people outside Brazil will not have heard of. His running mate is the millionaire owner of a textile firm.

On the day the IBOPE poll was published, Lula was photographed shaking hands with former President Jose Sarney of the PMDB, an old-style political boss from the Northeast who represents everything the PT supposedly despises. Sarney and Lula are, of course, still miles apart in ideology. But by backing Lula, Sarney is getting back at Serra, whom he blames for a police raid on a company owned by daughter Roseana. The raid uncovered huge sums of cash, and led to an ongoing criminal investigation. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend", sums up this unlikely love match.

Lula is now in a position that would have been hard to imagine not that long ago. He has the support of not just one, but two former presidents, since Itamar Franco, the Governor of Minas Gerais states, has decided to back him. Lula might even end up with support from the incumbent, President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, if Serra flops in the first round and we have a Lula-Gomes runoff.

The PT candidate is aware of the irony of his position. "Now I have the support of two former presidents, Sarney and Itamar Franco. I just don't want the support of Fernando Collor" he said recently, in a reference to the former president who stepped down 10 years ago as he was about to be impeached following allegations of corruption.

Finally, in passing, I would like to mention the astonishing lack of security at a public rally I attended last week, which featured an address by Lula. The rally was held outside São Paulo's downtown Municipal Theatre, in the middle of a hot afternoon. Lula and the PT leadership were addressing supporters from atop a rather rickety platform. The PT claimed 10,000 were there, while the police put the figure at 3,000. To me, both figures were inflated.

However, what concerned me was the lack of visible security. There were a few police cars on the periphery, but no uniformed police near the platform. I was about 15 feet away from Lula, with only a few people between me and the candidate, and I could easily have gotten closer. Although I was carrying a bag on my shoulder, no one questioned me.

The entire potential future leadership of the country could have been wiped out in a few seconds, if anyone had that intention in mind. One assumes that Lula has his own personal bodyguards, but I have seen much tighter security outside a bingo hall than surrounding the leading presidential candidate. When I later commented on this, Brazilians pooh-poohed any idea that Lula could be in physical danger. "The people like him, no one would hurt him", one person said, recalling that he had seen Lula speak during the military regime, unafraid of army helicopters hovering overhead.

Let's hope the Brazilians are right, but some tightening of security is definitely required. The last thing Brazil needs at this point is an assassination attempt on the leading candidate.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações - www.celt.com.br, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

© John Fitzpatrick 2002

You can also read John Fitzpatrick's articles in Infobrazil, where this article firs appeared, at www.infobrazil.com 

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