Lula Now

Everything seems to point to Lula as Brazil's next president.
His reformation is such that it seems almost impossible
to find anyone who does not like him and,
in turn, he seems to love everybody.

John Fitzpatrick

On October 6, chances are that the veteran left-wing PT leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will top the presidential poll and probably go into a second round that he will win. This is not meant to be a prediction, but a conclusion one can state fairly confidently because it is confirmed by consistent backing in the opinion polls.

While the ratings of the other three main candidates—former Health Minister José Serra (PSDB), former Ceará state Governor Ciro Gomes (PPS) and former Rio de Janeiro state Governor Anthony Garotinho (PSB)—have fluctuated in the last few months, Lula's have remained steady. The latest IBOPE poll, published on September 3, shows him with 35 percent while Serra and Gomes each have 17 percent, and Garotinho 11 percent. Lula has fallen from earlier heights of around 40 percent, but his ratings have consistently put him well ahead of the others.

This was a scenario few observers would have foreseen a year ago. At that time, Lula was seen to be a voice in the wilderness, shouting old slogans and offering out-of-date ideas. The change has been enormous and in almost a blink we have seen the "old" Lula banished from the public eye, to be replaced by a moderate, almost fatherly figure ready to take on the task of leading the nation. His publicists have done a great job in smartening him up, swapping the tee shirts stretched over a paunch for smart suits and capped teeth, and making him use more inclusive language.

The reformation is such that it seems almost impossible to find anyone who does not like him and, in turn, he seems to love everybody. Not only has he formed the strangest political alliances, but he even appeared to be praising the military dictatorship recently for creating an economic boom that boosted employment.

How has this come about, and why is Brazil now fairly relaxed about "President" Lula? One reason is that Lula has been the dominant opposition figure for over 20 years, first as a trade union leader who challenged the military, and then as the founder of the PT. Several generations have grown up with Lula, who is as familiar a face as that of relatives. Therefore, to many people Lula represents not change but continuity.

Another reason is that, at the present time, right-wing policies have no appeal to the electorate. All the main candidates are center-left, and the two fringe candidates are extreme left. Parties that sit more to the political right have formed alliances with other candidates, as is the case with most of the PFL, now supporting Gomes. In these circumstances, Lula is not only on home ground: he also got a head start.

A further reason is that President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who cannot seek another term, did not cultivate a natural successor and let the PSDB front runners, Serra and current Ceará state Governor Tasso Jeriassati, slug it out for the candidacy. The aggrieved Jeriassati has repaid Cardoso by announcing his support for Gomes, his predecessor as Ceará Governor and a long-time regional ally. Cardoso has not taken an active part in the race, and has even said privately he will back Lula if Serra does not reach the second round. This shows an astonishing lack of confidence—if not disdain—for his own party's candidate.

However, one of the main reasons why Lula is now seen as a good boy is the current world economic crisis. Over the last year the Brazilian economy has been severely hit—unemployment has risen, the value of the real against the dollar has plunged, the current account deficit remains stubbornly high, and only the promise of a US$30 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund has staved off what could have been a collapse, not only in Brazil but in all the emerging markets.

All the main candidates have gone along with the IMF deal, as they know there was no other way out. The bulk of this loan will become available next year, so the new president knows he will have a cushion between him and reality for a while. Those sectors that have traditionally been against the PT—the banks, big business, etc.—also know this and, consequently, have become more relaxed.

This is not to say that everything will be OK next year. The real, in particular, could easily come under pressure, and the Central Bank may find it does not have enough reserves available to intervene in the market on an organized basis, as it has done this year. The country itself seems to have recognized the gravity of the latest crisis and accepted the situation, despite the usual knee-jerk anti-Americanism and hostility to the IMF and the World Bank in some quarters. It is the third time the IMF has come to Brazil's rescue over the last eight years and, perhaps, voters have also become used to it.

At the same time, the IMF has improved its public relations and shown a less harsh face. By offering the loan, which featured a bigger dollar figure than expected, the IMF has shown that it recognizes Brazil's strategic importance. It also acted discreetly, and sounded out the views of the candidates before announcing the deal.

This crisis has helped Lula enormously. By accepting the IMF agreement, he has shown that actions speak louder than words and hushed those voices constantly demanding an unambiguous public statement that he would honor Brazil's debt commitments. The bitter struggle between Serra and Gomes has also benefited him. While attention has focused on this unseemly scrap, Lula has remained above the fray, appearing statesmanlike in comparison with the feuding Serra and Gomes.

Meanwhile, the PT leadership has done an excellent job of muzzling internal dissent, as the party realizes it is on the brink of success. The unions are quiet, and even the landless peasant movement, the MST, has scaled down its activities. Although the MST and PT are not formally linked, there are shared sympathies and it is difficult to believe that the MST's current low profile is a coincidence. Lula's policy of forming a broad front has also helped, so he is not coming under attack from interests which would normally be hostile to the PT.

However, Lula as president is an unknown quantity and Brazilians could be taking a big risk putting their trust in him. Lula has admitted that he has little political administrative experience, and recently compared himself with Nelson Mandela, who assumed the South African presidency after a lengthy jail term and with no prior experience. A better comparison might be with the Polish trade union leader, Lech Walessa, who was a wonderful symbol of freedom and a dynamic union leader but an unimpressive president. Unlike Mandela who, at least, gave South Africa a sense of unity, Walessa left a poor legacy and lost virtually all the popular support he had enjoyed.

So far, Lula has had an easy ride, and it is time he was called to account. PFL party President, Senator Jorge Bornhausen, made an interesting point recently when he called attention to the support Lula has received from former President and current Minas Gerais state Governor Itamar Franco. It was Franco's rash behavior in early 1999, soon after he was elected governor and blatantly defaulted on state debt, that contributed strongly to the sharp devaluation of the real that followed.

Bornhausen also recalled Lula saying he would cancel a contract signed by Petrobras for oil platforms to be constructed in Singapore, to have them built in Brazil instead. The PFL Senator looked back to when the PT won the governorship in Rio Grande do Sul state: one of the first acts of the new governor was to renege on a contract which the previous government had signed with Ford to build a new auto plant in the state. Ford refused to renegotiate the terms, and eventually set up the plant in the state of Bahia. Lula has criticized the Petrobras platform contract in practically every speech he has made, as though having this platform built in Brazil will solve the problem of unemployment.

The PT is also strongly critical of the American attempt to set up a Free Trade Area of the Americas, and is backing a national plebiscite against Brazilian involvement. Lula is pinning his faith on the moribund Mercosul, which links Brazil with bankrupt Argentina, tiny crisis-ridden Uruguay, and Paraguay, one of the most corrupt, inefficient countries in the world.

Let us hope that in the second round—whether it is against Serra or Gomes—Lula is forced to shed his public relations mask, and tell us what he really stands for.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações - www.celt.com.br, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

© John Fitzpatrick 2002

You can also read John Fitzpatrick's articles in Infobrazil, where this article firs appeared, at www.infobrazil.com 

Send your
comments to
Brazzil