Down for the Count

Ciro Gomes has still not made a sincere apology for his
asinine remark that the main role of his girlfriend was
to sleep with him. To many this showed the face of  a macho man
who thinks women only exist for his pleasure.

John Fitzpatrick

Like Icarus, the son of Dedalus, Brazil's would-be president, Ciro Gomes, has flown as high as he could and, having reached his zenith, is crashing earthwards, his waxy wings on fire. His fall has come as quickly as his rise and, for the sake of Brazilian democracy, let us hope there is no Phoenix-like resurrection in the years to come. Gomes has shown himself to be vain, petulant, undemocratically-minded, and unfit to be a presidential candidate, never mind president.

Here are the results of the latest polls in mid September, which show that Lula is still well in the lead, with Serra gaining support, Gomes falling and Garotinho gaining some support.
 

Candidates	Datafolha	Ibope	Vox Populi
Lula (PT)	40%	39%	39%
Serra (PSDB)	21%	19%	19%
Gomes (PPS)	15%	15%	17%
Garotinho (PSB)	14%	12%	12%

Source: Folha de São Paulo (September 13)

No one likes to be a loser but Gomes is being an extremely poor loser. He claims that the opinion polls, which are charting his downfall, are fabricated by "billions of reais circulating behind the scenes to try and influence votes". We do not know who is paying out these "billions of reais" because he did not identify anyone. Presumably he means that rival candidates are either bribing respondents or the polling companies are being paid massive amounts to engage in a conspiracy.

Like all the other candidates he has made various appeals to the electoral court, but has been openly critical of it because some of its rulings have gone against him. He has accused it of being favorable to Serra, showing a lack of faith in and respect for an important institution in the democratic process. He also suggested that the elections would not be free and fair and said he was considering whether to ask the United Nations to send international observers. One recalls that ex-president Jose Sarney made a similar preposterous statement earlier this year after his daughter, Roseana Sarney, abandoned her presidential bid, following a police raid on a company she owned which unearthed over one million reais in cash sitting in an office safe.

Even Gomes' attempts to admit that he may not be as perfect as he imagines he is have backfired. Last week he said that although he was sometimes hot-headed, what was more important was that he was not a thief. (This is a good example of the Alice in Wonderland mentality prevalent in Brazilian politics. Look at the current campaign by Paulo Maluf to become governor of São Paulo state. Maluf, who has faced countless accusations of corruption in his political career, is fighting his campaign on an anti-crime ticket.) If not being a thief is a good credential for being president then presumably 99 percent of the population could hold the highest office in the land.

Also, Gomes has still not made a sincere apology for his asinine remark that the main role of his girlfriend, the actress Patricia Pillar, was to sleep with him. To many Brazilian women this comment showed the face of the Northeastern macho man who thinks women only exist for his pleasure. Gomes' own advisers have admitted that the remark had had a devastating effect on women voters and needed to be addressed. Here, however, is a free translation of Gomes' idea of an "apology": "It was a joke and, if it was in bad taste, I am sorry, but it was a joke taken out of context (by Serra)."

Hopefully, having bid Gomes farewell we can look ahead to either a first round knockout by Lula or a second round between Lula and Serra.

The question now is will Lula continue to coast along or could Serra pull off a surprising victory? In purely numerical terms, voters who sided with Gomes and Garotinho in the first round are more likely to vote for Lula than for Serra. However, what will happen after October 6 if we have a Lula-Serra stand-off? We can be sure of one thing, Lula's honeymoon will be over. The media, which has savaged Gomes, will turn its attention to Lula and the PT.

We can expect articles about the PT's administration in places like Santo André, where there have been corruption allegations, and in São Paulo where the PT mayor, Marta Suplicy, has performed poorly. The PT governor of Rio de Janeiro state, Benedita da Silva, will come under fire for the latest prison rebellion which saw rival factions kill their enemies almost at will and negotiate with the police on equal terms. The militant activities of the MST landless peasant movement will be singled out once more and doubts will be raised as to whether Lula really has changed. Inside that neat little suit is there still a tee-shirted union orator?

There are already signs that business is stepping up contributions to Serra. A director at a leading bank told me last week that there are a surprisingly large number of people in the financial community who now think Serra will pull it off. It is hard to imagine this but one cannot rule it out. However, if it does happen then let us hope it is based on political rather than personal factors and that last-minute "scandals" or "revelations" play no part of it.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações - www.celt.com.br, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

© John Fitzpatrick 2002

You can also read John Fitzpatrick's articles in Infobrazil, where this article firs appeared, at www.infobrazil.com 

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