Home Stretch

Wishful thinking as Cardoso looks ahead to last year
of his mandate. The President warns his successor
against undoing the changes, which
he said the "people" had made.

John Fitzpatrick

President Fernando Henrique Cardoso held a two-hour long ministerial meeting in front of the press on February 6 during which he outlined some priorities of his government in the last 11 months of its lifetime. These included putting bills before Congress on improving public security, granting the Central Bank independence from political pressure, making labor laws more flexible and reforming the social security system.

He emphasized that his administration would govern until the last day of his mandate and said the presidential electoral campaign would not deflect him from ensuring that the central plank of his economic policy—maintaining a tight grip on inflation—was adhered to.

The president resisted the temptation to spend a lot of time hailing the successes of his seven years in office. Although he gave himself some pats on the back he acknowledged failures particularly in the energy field. This failure led to electricity rationing, which is still continuing almost a year after it was introduced.

He hoped the next government would be better than his but warned his successor against destroying the changes, which he said the "people" had made. Overall it was a workmanlike performance, but with a certain element of wishful thinking rather than common sense as he knows it is unlikely that Congress will pass most of the bills.

The reason has to do with the election campaign, which will shortly get into top gear. Under Brazil's electoral law, candidates for the presidency, state governorships, Senate and House of Representatives have to leave any government posts six months before the election. The deadline this year is April 6.

This means that 12 of Cardoso's 22-strong team will shortly be quitting. These include three possible presidential candidates—health minister José Serra (PSDB), agricultural development minister Raul Jungmann (PMDB) and agriculture minister Pratini de Moraes (PPB). Other departing ministers hold the justice, labor, education, environment, social security, communications, national integration and sport portfolios plus the secretary-general of the presidency.

Serra, of course, is the favorite to be the government candidate if the allies unite behind one person. However, Serra is languishing in the opinion polls with 11 percent compared with the PFL's Roseana Sarney who has around 24 percent. These figures are from a national telephone poll made by the Instituto Vox Populi and show that Serra has gained some ground and for the first time has reached double figures.

Serra has anticipated his departure from the government and will step down at the end of February to reassume his position as a Senator. Losing several of these ministers will be a headache for Cardoso who will have to reshuffle his cabinet to the liking of the four-party governing alliance. This will make it difficult to maintain the kind of political pressure needed to get his laws through Congress.

As the new ministers face short terms in office we can expect little of them. Technocrats and lightweights rather than political heavyweights will be the likely replacements. Within the next few weeks the battle lines should be drawn up and campaigning will begin in earnest. Leading politicians will be concentrating on the electoral trail and Congress could grind down to a virtual halt.

There is, however, one bright spot for Cardoso. His trusty right-hand man the finance minister, Pedro Malan, will not be leaving and will almost certainly serve until the last day of the Cardoso mandate. The planning and budget minister, Martus Tavares, will also stay. The Central Bank chief, Arminio Fraga, although not a minister, is another key member of the economic team and he is remaining for the moment.

By maintaining this impressive economic team Cardoso appears to be showing that he will continue with his economic policies until the end. It was, therefore, interesting to see that the PFL leadership had a meeting with Fraga during which they are reported to have said that if Roseana Sarney wins, her government will continue with Cardoso's economic policies.

By doing this so early in the campaign the PFL is hoping to exploit any differences which may appear during the campaign between Serra and the government. Although he is seen as a safe pair of financial hands Serra has often complained that there should be more emphasis on social programs.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at Johnfitz@osite.com.br

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